Roundup: Asia will lead global economic recovery in 2010, economists say
By Chen Jipeng
HONG KONG, Jan. 15 (Xinhua) -- Asia ex-Japan will lead the global economic recovery with impressive growths in 2010, with China and India in the spotlight, economists has said.
International wealth management firm Invesco said on Wednesday it expected a growth of 7.4 percent for Asia-Pacific in 2010, compared with 2.2 percent for the United States, 1.2 percent for the U.K. and 1.2 percent for the euro zone
The Asia-Pacific refers to economies such as China, India, the four newly industrialized economies and links of london the southeast Asian economies of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand.
"I expect overall gross domestic product growth for the Asia ex- Japan region of about 4 percent to 5 percent, with China still leading the pack in 2010," Invesco Chief Economist John Greenwood said in Hong Kong.
In Asia, the possibility of a second downturn is remote, he said.
"Asia is in very good shape because of ... the health of the balance sheets ... good income growth," he said, adding that consumption will be strong in China.
Invesco projected a growth of 9.4 percent for the Chinese economy in 2010 and 7.5 percent for India.
Greenwood said the recoveries in the developed world are modest and fragile.
The key question for 2010 would be whether the recovery in the household and private sectors will be strong enough to enable the central banks to exit from the stimulus plans without harming nascent recovery.
The stories are different for the developed and the emerging economies, given that the process of balance sheet repair has just begun in the U.S. and U.K.
"Balance sheet repair is a prolonged process. It cannot happen quickly," he said, adding that balance sheet repair process in the U.K. after the housing boom of the late 1980s lasted for more than half of the following decade.
Greenwood said he expected the size of the balance sheets of the central banks to remain put through most of 2010. The reduction of the size of the balance sheet will only begin much later, probably in 2011.
Ayaz Ebrahim, chief executive officer for Asia-Pacific at Halbis Capital Management, an investment arm of banking giant HSBC, also saw Asia leading the global economic recovery, making it an important investment theme in 2010.
Huge inflow of money into Asia ex-Japan since March 2009 showed the financial institutions has been expanding their investments in the region, Ebrahim said.
Replica prada wholesaleNevertheless, Ebrahim warned against potential downside risks in the Asian markets, citing excessive liquidity and recent remarkable rise in asset prices.
Leon Goldfeld, the chief investment officer of HSBC Global Asset Management in Hong Kong, said one of the risks for the global economy in 2010 is the exit strategies.
The global economic growth might slow down a bit when the central banks started exiting from stimulus measures in the second half. But the emerging economies would still enjoy better prospects than the developed economies, he said.
Standard Chartered projected a growth of 2.7 percent for the global economy this year, compared with 7 percent for Asia. China is
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